What Counts as Regression? What Data Really Tells You for ESY

By: Dr. Gabrielle Baker, President & Advocate

Every spring, families begin hearing the same phrase: “Your child doesn’t qualify for ESY because they didn’t regress.”

But what actually counts as regression? And what does the data really need to show?

Extended School Year services are not about summer enrichment. They are about preventing significant loss of skills that a child cannot reasonably recoup within a short period of time. Understanding what regression truly means can change the entire conversation.

Regression Is Not Just a Drop in Grades

Regression refers to a measurable loss of previously mastered skills during a break in instruction. This often occurs over winter break, spring break, or other extended school closures.

But regression is not limited to academic grades.

It can include loss of:

• Reading fluency or decoding skills
• Math calculation accuracy
• Speech and articulation skills
• Behavioral regulation
• Social communication
• Independent living skills
• Executive functioning routines

If a skill disappears or significantly weakens after a break, that matters.

Recoupment Is Just as Important as Regression

The second half of the ESY analysis is recoupment. The legal question is not simply “Did the student regress?” It is “How long did it take them to regain the lost skill?”

A typical student may need a short review period after a break. A student who qualifies for ESY often requires an extended period to regain previously mastered skills.

If it takes weeks or months to return to baseline, that supports the need for ESY.

What Data Should the School Be Looking At

Strong ESY decisions are based on objective data, not opinion.

The team should review:

• Progress monitoring graphs before and after breaks
• IEP goal data
• Benchmark assessment scores
• Service provider session notes
• Behavior frequency or duration data
• Speech or related service tracking logs

Look closely at what happened right before and right after winter break. That period often provides the clearest picture.

If the school has not collected consistent data, that is a separate concern. Lack of data does not equal lack of regression.

Regression Can Be Subtle

Regression does not always look dramatic.

It may look like:

• A child who previously initiated communication now requiring prompts
• Increased behavior incidents after a break
• Loss of stamina for reading or writing tasks
• Forgetting routines that were previously independent
• Increased need for adult redirection

These patterns are often visible in classroom notes even if they are not clearly graphed.

Critical Skill Areas Matter

Even if regression appears small numerically, the team must consider whether the skill is critical.

For students working on:

• Foundational reading
• Functional communication
• Behavior replacement skills
• Transition or vocational skills

Any regression can have a disproportionate impact.

If the skill is foundational, ESY may be necessary to prevent serious setbacks.

ESY Is Not Limited to Severe Disabilities

There is no disability category requirement for ESY. Eligibility is based on need.

Students with ADHD, autism, specific learning disabilities, emotional disabilities, or speech impairments may all qualify if the data shows significant regression and slow recoupment.

The standard is whether ESY is necessary to provide a Free Appropriate Public Education.

What If the School Says No Regression

If the school denies ESY, ask:

• What specific data did you review
• What was the baseline before the break
• What was the performance level immediately after
• How long did recoupment take
• How are you defining significant regression

Request that the data be reviewed at the meeting. Decisions should not be made without showing you the numbers.

You can also submit your own data from home. If you observed skill loss after winter break, document it.

Do Not Wait Until May

ESY decisions should not be rushed at the end of the year. If you are concerned, raise the issue now and request data review.

The strongest ESY determinations are based on patterns across breaks, not last minute assumptions.

What Counts as Regression

Regression is measurable loss.
Recoupment is delayed recovery.
Data tells the story.

If your child loses critical skills during breaks and struggles to regain them, ESY is not optional. It may be necessary to maintain meaningful progress.

Families should not accept vague assurances. Ask for the data. Review the graphs. Look at the patterns.

The numbers often speak louder than opinions.